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– #Gold has always done best in an environment of weak currencies. The latest example is the Turkish Lira #TRY
The latest political tension between the U.S. and Turkey (arrest of a U.S. diplomat in the U.S. embassy in Turkey) has led to the gold price rising in Turkish Lira (attachment 1 – one week chart).
The 5-year chart shows how gold has performed in Turkish Lira since 2013. Especially since 2015, gold has gained 50% versus the Turkish Lira. Gold is safe haven for the Turkish citizens.
Turkish gold imports reached 289.7 tons from January-September 2017.
Attachment 3 shows gold versus the British Pound on a 5-year chart. Since the Brexit Referendum of June 23, 2016, gold in British Pounds has gained around 20% but the Pound was already weak versus gold since fall 2015. Big events throw the shadow ahead.
If Spanish Pesetas still existed, the Peseta would be very weak against gold due to the Catalonia referendum. But Pesetas doesn’t exist anymore, although when you shop and pay in Spain your shopping ticket shows the amount in EURO and also in Pesetas. Politicians are warned, citizens have a mammoth memory.
The big gold buying in Germany lately comes at no surprise. German investors have seen fiat currencies come and go: in the past 100 years, Germany has had eight (8) different currencies. The weak governments in the Euroland, the upcoming sovereign debt and banking crisis don’t bode well for a great future for the EURO.
The so called “agreement” of last Sunday between the sister parties CDU/CSU, the largest party in Germany, on the refugee politic, looks more like what is called in spanish una piñata (Wundertüte in german or pochette surprise in french or surprise bag in english). Another meaningless agreement and nobody knows what is exactly in it.
The weak “agreement” is due to the fact that Germany is currently forming a new majority government. While the international financial world believes, with probably Mrs. Merkel heading the new government, everything will be the same, the reality is completely different. She needs a coalition with the Liberals (FDP) and Greens, a so called Jamaica coalition, named after the colors of the flag of Jamaica, black, yellow, green. The power of the German government will be weaker as the CDU/CSU will have to please the junior partners and its influence in the European Union will be diminished. Through this the EURO will become a softer currency.
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Here’s an introductory piece on How To Take A #MiningCompany Public:
Mick Thomson is an expert when it comes to the process of publicly listing a company, whether it be through the use of a capital pool company (CPC), a reverse take-over (RTO), or an initial public offering (IPO).
Read the whole piece here on Palisade Research’s site: How To Take A #MiningCompany Public
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– Copper has pulled back nearly 8% from the 2017 highs and is now testing its first key level of support near the 50-day moving average and August consolidation zone.
– The pullback resembles the December 2016 lows as price action hits the 50-dma as Full Stochastics reach extreme near-term oversold levels.
Global Copper Miners ETF: Trading Opportunity Off the 50-MDA
– The Global Copper Miners ETF (COPX) has pulled back to initial support at the 50-day moving average.
– The recent weakness has pushed Full Stochastics to oversold levels and reset daily RSI providing an opportunity to accumulate.
Freeport-McMoRan: Testing Key Support
– Freeport has pulled back to converging support at the 200-day moving average, August lows and neckline of the Feb-July rounded bottom.
– Combined with sub-10 Full Stochastic readings, the recent pullback provides an attractive entry point.
Glencore: Dual Support
– Glencore is retesting the breakout from the November to August trading range and rising 50-day moving average.
– The September pullback has reset momentum from an oversold condition and offers an opportunity to accumulate.
First Quantum Minerals: Bottom of Channel
– Price action has pulled back 17$ from the September highs and is now at the bottom of the developing bullish channel.
– Deeply oversold Full Stochastics combined with price testing support suggests adding to FM at current levels.
HudBay Minerals: Oversold at 200-Day Moving Average
– Attractive entry point in HBM as price tests a key inflection level dating back to December 2016 and the rising 200-day moving average.
– RSI, MACD and Full Stochastics reset and price action remains in an uptrend versus the TSX Composite.
Copper Commitment of Traders: Still Needs to Reset
– While we see attractive trading opportunities in Copper stocks after their recent declines, there still remains some risk over the coming months from the positioning in the Commitment of Traders.
– Net speculative long positions in Copper have risen to the second largest net long position in history behind only the late 2016/early 2017 period. At the same time, commercial traders have opened up significant net short positions approaching the 2017 lows.
– The bearish COT setup suggests Copper is likely to experience a multi-month period of consolidation similar to the first half of 2017.
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The World @GoldCouncil published its #Gold #ETF holdings update
European funds have increased their AUM (asset under management) by 12% on the year, while Asian funds have lost 16% of their assets.
Gold-backed ETFs increase by 31.4t in August to 2,295t in global holdings
· North American ETFs drove global inflows in August as investors added 27.8 tonnes ($1.3bn, 2.6% asset under management (AUM)
· Flows in Europe were mixed with a net increase of 6.4t ($321mn, 0.78% AUM)
· Asia funds lost 2t ($80mn, 3.0% AUM), with many of the Chinese gold-backed funds losing assets
Individual fund flows
· In North America, SPDR® Gold Shares led inflows with +22.4t ($1.03bn, 3.2% of AUM), followed by iShares Gold Trust with +4.6t ($266mn, 3.1% of AUM).
· European inflows were driven by Source Physical Gold +6t ($245mn, 5.5% of AUM) and ETFs Physical Gold +2.1t ($109mn, 1.87% of AUM).
· Global gold-backed ETFs collectively hold 2,295t and added 143.5t, equivalent to $5.3bn so far in 2017. This represents an increase of 5.5% of global AUM.
· European funds continue to lead inflows accounting for nearly 79% of all inflows during the year.
European funds have increased their AUM by 12% on the year, while Asian funds have lost 16% of their assets.
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The attached research paper “#Gold & Precious Minerals” by Scotiabank deals with AISC (all-in sustaining cost). Generally speaking, for the senior and intermediate gold producers, a gold price of US$ 1’000 to US$ 1’100 per ounce is needed for FCF (free cash flow) breakeven.
The industry has done well cutting costs to maintain their margins despite much lower gold prices. It’s a well-known narrative that gold producers have cut spending heavily since the peaks of 2011-2012; analysis confirms that in 2016, standardized AISC margins (%) for the group have returned to levels similar to 2012 (~25-30%) when the gold price was more than $400/oz higher. “Sustaining FCF” margins (i.e., after deducting cash taxes and interest) have rebounded even further with margins now ~18% vs. 17% in 2012. Since 2012, Nemont Mining has improved their standardized AISC position the most (from seventh to third), while Yamana Gold has slipped the most (from first to seventh).
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